Superforecasting

Author: Philip Tetlock
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 1448166594
Size: 68.44 MB
Format: PDF
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These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

Superforecasting

Author: Philip Tetlock
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781847947147
Size: 52.30 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
View: 301
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These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

The Signal And The Noise

Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101595957
Size: 56.37 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
View: 918
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public ...

Superforecasting

Author: Instaread
Publisher: Instaread
ISBN: 1944195483
Size: 53.85 MB
Format: PDF
View: 5874
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It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the ...

Expert Political Judgment

Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400830311
Size: 60.30 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Future Babble

Author: Daniel Gardner
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101476095
Size: 75.59 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
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Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of ...

Mindware

Author: Richard E. Nisbett
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN: 0374710678
Size: 11.26 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
View: 1675
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In this groundbreaking book, Nisbett shows us how to frame common problems in such a way that these scientific and statistical principles can be applied to them.